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TIMING YOUR BETS? EARLY OR LATE?
WHAT SHOULD YOU DO?!

1. The Case for Betting Early

Betting early allows sharp bettors to take advantage of soft lines set by sportsbooks. These lines are often based on initial projections and are more vulnerable to exploitation.

• Advantages:

  • Soft Lines: Early lines might not fully account for all variables, providing an edge to bettors who can spot inefficiencies.

  • Line Movement: By betting early, you lock in favorable odds before the public or sharp money causes the line to shift.

  • Value on Underdogs: Underdogs often have better value early, as public money tends to shift odds in favor of favorites closer to game time.

• Example: An NFL game opens with a total of 47 points. If your analysis suggests the game will be high-scoring, you can grab the over before it moves to 48.5 due to heavy betting.

2. The Case for Betting Late

Betting closer to game time gives you access to critical up-to-date information, such as injuries, weather, or late lineup changes.

• Advantages:

  • Better Information: You’ll have a clearer picture of the game’s conditions, such as starting lineups or weather impacts.

  • Public Influence: If public money heavily backs one side, you might find value in fading the public and betting the opposite side.

  • Live Value Opportunities: Sportsbooks adjust lines late to balance their books, which can create opportunities for sharp bettors.

• Example: A key NBA player is ruled out 30 minutes before tip-off. The spread jumps from -5 to -7 for the opposing team. Betting late allows you to react to this new information.

3. Key Factors to Consider

When deciding whether to bet early or late, these factors should guide your decision:

• Injury Reports: If a team’s star player is questionable, waiting might provide clarity.

• Weather Conditions: In sports like football and baseball, weather can have a significant impact on totals and player performance.

• Line Movement: Track how lines change after they’re posted. Sharp money often moves lines early, while public money influences them late.

• Market Dynamics: Some sports (e.g., NFL) have more public betting closer to game time, while others (e.g., smaller college games) might not see much late action.

4. Strategies for Betting Early vs. Late

Here’s how to maximize your timing strategy:

• Early Betting Tips:

  • Look for games with soft opening lines.

  • Use advanced metrics or models to identify value before the public catches on.

  • Target smaller markets (e.g., college basketball) where lines take longer to adjust.

• Late Betting Tips:

  • Monitor injury updates and react quickly to breaking news.

  • Look for “fade the public” opportunities, especially in heavily bet games.

  • Consider weather conditions, particularly for outdoor sports like NFL or MLB.

5. Combining Both Strategies

You don’t have to choose between betting early or late—savvy bettors use both strategies depending on the situation.

• Hybrid Approach: Place early bets on lines you expect to move, but keep some of your bankroll reserved for late opportunities when new information emerges.

• Arbitrage and Hedging: Betting early can set you up to hedge or middle your bets if lines move significantly.

Conclusion

Timing your bets is a critical skill for any serious sports bettor. Betting early helps you exploit soft lines, while betting late lets you capitalize on better information. Mastering both approaches ensures you’re always in the best position to find value and improve your bottom line.

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