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TLT BETTING SCHOOL
VALUE BETTING?

Understand True Probability (*example*):

Example: Your statistical model calculates the New York Yankees have a 60% chance of winning against the Boston Red Sox.

Stat: True odds for a 60% probability are -150 (implied probability of 60%).

• Compare Bookmaker's Odds:

  • Example: The sportsbook offers odds of +110 on the Yankees.

  • Stat: +110 odds imply a 47.62% chance of winning.

• Identify Value Bets:

  • Example: Since your model predicts a 60% chance and the bookmaker's odds imply only a 47.62% chance, this is a value bet.

  • Stat: The difference of 12.38% (60% - 47.62%) represents the value edge.

• Calculate Expected Value (EV):

  • Formula: EV = (Probability of Win Payout) - (Probability of Loss Stake)

  • Example: For a $100 bet at +110, EV = (0.60 $110) - (0.40 $100) = $66 - $40 = $26.

  • Stat: A positive EV of $26 indicates a profitable bet in the long run.

• Long-term Profitability:

  • Example: Over a season, consistently betting on value bets like the Yankees example can yield substantial profits.

  • Stat: If you place 100 similar bets with an average EV of $26, your expected profit is $2,600.

By focusing on value betting, you leverage statistical analysis to find bets where the odds are in your favor, leading to sustainable long-term gains.

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