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The Locks Newsletter
TOPICS OF THE DAY
TLT 2023 OVERVIEW - 70+ UNITS
Across all sports in 2023!
It has been an incredible year and I want to thank everyone who has been with us through thick and thin! Its very hard to win at this let alone be up over 70+ units across all sports!
See below a breakdown on how certain size bettors profited this year
$1,000 Bettors = $70,000 profit in 2023
$500 Bettors = $35,000 profit in 2023
$100 Bettors = $7,000 profit in 2023
Not every day is green, but as long as you follow our system you will be green at the end!
You can see not every month is a green one but that is why bankroll management and discipline is key in this game!
PARTNERSHIPS & GREAT DEALS FOR THE TLT FAMILY
50% OFF ALL PACKAGES
DM us on Instagram once you purchase so we can add you on to the team!
TLT SPORTS BETTING SCHOOL
TOPIC 35 - HOW BETTING LINES ARE SET PART II
IF you missed part I, go check it out here!
Advanced Statistical Analysis in Line Setting
Consider a football game where Team A is playing at home against Team B.
Statistically, Team A wins 70% of their home games and has their star player returning from injury.
Based on these stats, bookmakers might initially set the line with Team A as a -150 favorite (implying a 60% chance of winning).
This initial line is a direct result of statistical analysis reflecting Team A's strong home-field performance and player impact.
Expert Input Beyond Data
In a tennis match, Player X, known for their prowess on grass courts, faces Player Y, who excels on clay.
While statistics might favor Player X overall, experts know Player X struggles on clay.
So, despite the statistical model suggesting Player X as a -200 favorite (implying a 66.7% chance of winning), expert input might adjust this to a narrower -150, reflecting the surface-specific dynamics.
Market Trends and Public Perception
In a boxing match, Fighter A is statistically stronger than Fighter B.
However, Fighter B is a popular underdog with significant public support.
Initially, Fighter A might be a -300 favorite (implying a 75% win probability).
But due to heavy public betting on Fighter B, bookmakers might shift the line to Fighter A at -250 (implying a 71.4% chance) to balance the wagering.
Real-Time Adjustments to Lines
Imagine a basketball game where Team C leads by 15 points at halftime.
Initially, they were a -5 point favorite. As the game progresses, and Team C's lead increases, in-play betting might adjust Team C to a -10 point favorite, reflecting their dominant performance and the reduced likelihood of Team D's comeback.
In-play betting in real time reflects the true line of the game but you can get value if you believe your initial line will pan out in the end
Special Cases: Underdogs and Upsets
A classic example is a football game where the underdog Team E upsets the favored Team F. Initially, Team F might have been a -400 favorite (implying an 80% win probability).
After Team E's unexpected win, future lines for similar matchups might be more cautious, perhaps setting a similar team as a -300 favorite next time, to account for the potential of underdog victories.
Through these examples, we see the dynamic and complex nature of setting betting lines, encompassing statistical models, expert opinions, market trends, and real-time adjustments. As bettors, a deeper understanding of these factors can enhance our betting strategy and decision-making. Stay tuned for more insights in our next issue!
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