- The Locks
- Posts
- The Lock Talk - Newsletter #33 đź”’
The Locks Newsletter
TOPICS OF THE DAY
NBA GAME PREVIEWS - WHERE ARE WE?!
Public Heavy?
Bulls, Thunder and Grizzlies
Sharp Sides?
Pacers, Magic, Wizards and Pelicans
Who do you side with? The public or the sharps?!
TOPICS OF THE DAY
THE JAAA EFFECT?!?
Things to Consider for the Game
Ja has really given the people faith!
Pacers are on a back-to-back, what do you think?!
TLT SPORTS BETTING SCHOOL
TOPIC 33 - BASKBETALL TRENDS & STRATS
# Three-Point Shooting Trends: Analyze the increasing reliance on three-point shots in modern basketball.
Teams with a high three-point percentage often have a better chance of covering the spread. Consider teams shooting over 35% from beyond the arc.
$ Value of Home Court Advantage: Historically, home teams win more often in the NBA. However, the exact value varies seasonally.
For instance, home teams may win up to 60% of games in a given season.
% Impact of Star Players: Evaluate the effect of star players on the betting line. A star player's absence can shift the line by several points.
For example, the absence of a key player like Embiid could shift the line by 5-7 points.
$ Underdog Betting in High Totals Games: Games with high total points lines (e.g., over 220 points) tend to favor underdogs.
The rationale is that in high-scoring games, the underdog has a better chance to cover the spread.
% Defensive Efficiency and Its Betting Implications: Teams with top defensive ratings are often undervalued in the betting market.
A team in the top 10% for defensive efficiency might be a strong bet against teams that rely heavily on offense, as defense often plays a critical role in important games.
These points combine statistical analysis, understanding of the game's evolving nature, and key trends to create a more informed betting strategy for basketball enthusiasts.
Reply