The Lock Talk - Newsletter #31 🔒

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TOPICS OF THE DAY
NBA TRADE RUMORS

1. Blockbuster Trade Proposal: A three-team trade proposal involving Pascal Siakam to the Warriors, Andrew Wiggins to the Raptors, and OG Anunoby to the Knicks is being discussed​​.

2. Zach LaVine Trade Talks: The Bulls are exploring trade options for Zach LaVine, with the Lakers and 76ers showing interest​​.

3. $13 Million Wing Trade Rumors: Rival executives expect the Nets to maintain a high asking price for a specific player​​.

4. DeMar DeRozan Trade Possibility: The Pacers are linked as a possible suitor for DeMar DeRozan​​.

5. Scottie Barnes 'Untouchable': The Raptors deem Scottie Barnes untouchable in trade talks​​.

TOPICS OF THE DAY
WHY ARE SOME STATES NOT SPORTS BETTING?

1. Florida's Ongoing Litigation: The legal dispute involving the Seminole Tribe's sports wagering operations in Florida remains unresolved, affecting the state's sports betting landscape. Additionally, Florida is grappling with unregulated gambling, particularly in "game rooms"​​.

2. Georgia's Legislative Efforts: Despite the introduction of bills to authorize online sportsbooks, Georgia's efforts to legalize sports betting have been unsuccessful, partly due to constitutional barriers that necessitate a voter referendum​​.

3. Kentucky's Legalization Moves: Kentucky passed House Bill 551, authorizing sports wagering overseen by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission. The state is set to launch sports betting by the end of 2023, with provisions for both online and in-person betting​​.

4. Maine's Sports Betting Progress: Maine, which authorized sports betting in 2022, is working towards operationalizing sports wagering. A new proposal aims to include iGaming in sports betting authorization and allow tribes to conduct licensed iGaming​​.

5. North Carolina's Expansion to Mobile Betting: North Carolina, where sports betting is legal at tribal casinos, is moving towards legalizing mobile sports betting. A bill allowing up to 12 operators and different types of sports wagering licenses is awaiting final approval​​.

TLT SPORTS BETTING SCHOOL
TOPIC 31 - HEDGING

1. Understanding Hedging:

   • Hedging involves placing additional bets to offset potential losses or guarantee a profit, often in the face of changing circumstances or new information.

   • Example: Let's say you've placed a bet on Team A to win a soccer match, but just before the game, Team A's star player gets injured. You can hedge your bet by placing a smaller wager on Team B or a draw to minimize potential losses if Team A doesn't perform well.

2. Risk Reduction vs. Profit Guarantee:

   • Hedging can either reduce risk or guarantee profits, depending on your objectives. It's essential to decide whether you want to minimize potential losses or secure a certain amount of profit.

   • Example: If you've bet on a horse to win a race and it's leading comfortably, you can hedge your bet by placing a bet on that same horse to place (finish in the top two). This reduces your risk if the horse doesn't win but guarantees some profit if it places.

3. Calculating Hedge Bets:

   • Calculating the size of your hedge bet is crucial. You want to balance your potential losses and profits to achieve your desired outcome.

   • Example: You've placed a $100 bet on an underdog at +300 odds. If the underdog takes a significant lead, you might decide to hedge your bet by betting $150 on the favorite at -150 odds. This way, you secure a profit or being flat if the favorite wins.

4. Identifying Optimal Hedging Opportunities:

   • Timing is crucial when hedging bets. Look for opportunities where odds are favorable for the outcome you want to hedge.

   • Example: In basketball, if you've bet on a team to win the championship and they make it to the finals, you can hedge your bet before the final game especially if your original bet was at big + money odds

5. Monitoring Costs and Potential Outcomes:

   • Be aware of the costs associated with hedging, such as the size of your hedge bet and any fees or commissions. Consider how various outcomes will impact your overall profit or loss.

   • Example: You've bet on a tennis player to win a tournament at +500 odds, and they reach the final. You can hedge by betting on their opponent at -150 odds, but you'll need to calculate how much you'll spend on the hedge bet and how it affects your potential profit based on different match outcomes.

Remember that hedging should be used strategically and not excessively, as over-hedging can eat into potential profits. It's also important to adapt your hedging strategy based on changing circumstances and your original betting goals.

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