The Lock Talk - Newsletter #26 🔒

TOPICS OF THE DAY
WEEK 13 OF THE NFL PREVIEW 🏈

1. Key Matchup: Eagles vs. 49ers Rematch

   • The marquee matchup of Week 13 features a rematch of last year's NFC Championship Game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the San Francisco 49ers.

     • The Eagles opened as 1-point favorites, and the line is already on the move to -3.

2. Featured Game: Colts vs. Titans

   • The Indianapolis Colts (-1) take on the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium.

     • Betting insights include Mike Vrabel's impressive record as a home underdog and the Titans' struggles against teams with winning records.

3. Chargers vs. Patriots: Betting Trends

   • The Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) face the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium.

     • Notable betting nuggets include the Patriots' ATS struggles as underdogs and the Chargers' recent unders trend.

4. Prime-time Showdown: Mahomes at Lambeau

   • Sunday night showcases Patrick Mahomes' first game at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers.

     • Do the Chiefs pull off the win as only 6 point favorites?

5. Monday Night Football: Bengals vs. Jaguars

   • The Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5) host the Cincinnati Bengals at TIAA Bank Field on Monday night.

     • Betting insights reveal the Jaguars' strong performance as favorites and the Bengals' road success over the last three seasons.

TLT SPORTS BETTING SCHOOL
TOPIC 26 - RECENCY BIAS

1. Definition of Recency Bias:

   • Recency bias is the tendency for bettors to overly weigh recent performances. If a team won their last game convincingly, there might be an increase in public bets on them in the next matchup.

2. Emotional Impact on Betting:

   • Emotional reactions play a significant role. A team winning its last game by a large margin might see a surge in public support, with, for example, 70% of bets favoring them in the next match.

3. Influence on Betting Lines:

   • Recency bias affects betting lines. The bookmaker may adjust the odds to accommodate the high demand on the favored team. This adjustment could lead to, for instance, a 10% decrease in the odds for the favored team.

4. Importance of Context:

   • Context matters. Even if a team had an impressive win, it's essential to consider other factors.

   • For instance, if the recent victory was against a weaker opponent, a team might be overvalued, leading to a potential 15% overestimation in public perception.

5. Contrarian Betting Opportunities:

   • Insight: Recognizing recency bias opens contrarian opportunities. Betting against a team benefiting from recency bias, with only 30% of bets favoring the underdog, can present value, especially if a more comprehensive analysis suggests a more balanced assessment.

In summary, recency bias, seen in increased public support after a team's standout performance, can be quantified in terms of percentages of bets, adjustments in odds, and potential overestimation in public perception. This understanding provides a basis for contrarian betting strategies.