The Lock Talk - Newsletter #25

TOPICS OF THE DAY
NO MARK BUT YES TO TEXAS SPORTS BETTING?!

1. Mark Cuban's Prior Stance: Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban had expressed in May that he was more interested in legalizing resort and casinos in Texas than sports betting.

2. Stake Sale to Miriam Adelson: Mark Cuban is reportedly selling a majority stake in the Mavericks to Miriam Adelson, widow of Las Vegas Sands chairman Sheldon Adelson, at a $3.5 billion valuation. This move is seen as strengthening Cuban's efforts to build a resort and casino in collaboration with Las Vegas Sands.

3. Impact on Gambling Legislation in Texas: While Cuban's move enhances his casino expansion efforts, expanding gambling, including sports betting, in Texas has faced challenges. Resort and casino legislation did not pass the House, and online sports betting legislation faced defeat in the Senate.

4. Political Opposition, Especially from Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick: Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick has been a strong opponent of sports betting in Texas. His term extends through 2026, making the prospect of legalization challenging.

5. Cuban's Vision for Resort and Casinos in Texas: Mark Cuban argues that resort and casino legislation should be seen as a tourism bill rather than a gambling bill. He envisions Texas becoming a destination that attracts visitors from around the country and the world, emphasizing the value of tourism over gambling.

TLT SPORTS BETTING SCHOOL
TOPIC 25 - “LINE SHOPPING”

1. Varying Odds Across Sportsbooks:

   • Example: Bookmaker A offers odds of -110 on Team X to win, while Bookmaker B offers -105. If you bet $100 on Team X with Bookmaker B, you would profit $95.24 (excluding the initial stake) instead of $90.91 with Bookmaker A. Line shopping in this case increases your potential profit by approximately 4.7%.

2. Reducing Vigorish (Juice):

   • Example: Sportsbook A charges -110 (implied probability 52.38%), while Sportsbook B charges -105 (implied probability 51.22%). By choosing Sportsbook B, you reduce the vigorish from 4.76% to 2.44%. This reduction can significantly impact your long-term profitability.

3. Taking Advantage of Market Inefficiencies:

   • Example: A basketball game initially has odds of -6.5 at one sportsbook but -7 at another. If you believe the favored team will cover the spread, taking the -6.5 line early may provide better value before the odds adjust.

4. Maximizing Returns on Parlays:

   • Example: You want to create a 3-leg parlay with odds of -110 for each leg. Sportsbook A offers -110 for all legs, resulting in potential winnings of $594. Sportsbook B, however, offers -105 for each leg, increasing your potential winnings to $642.86. Line shopping here increases your parlay payout by approximately 8.2%.

5. Considering Alternate Lines and Prop Bets:

   • Example: For a player's total points in a basketball game, Sportsbook A offers over/under 22.5 points at -110, while Sportsbook B offers the same at -105. Choosing Sportsbook B in this case increases your potential profit by approximately 4.8%.

These examples illustrate how line shopping can lead to better returns and increased profitability by taking advantage of variations in odds and finding the best available lines across different sportsbooks.