The Lock Talk - Newsletter #24

TOPICS OF THE DAY
THE BOOKIES GOT CRUSHED!

• The Public Feasted Last Week! Sunday's NFL Action: Absolute Madness!

  • The NFL favorites didn't just cover; they went absolutely bonkers! Your go-to teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, and Baltimore Ravens not only secured the win but made sure bettors backing them cashed as they all covered the spread!

• Vegas Feeling the Heat:

  • Late-game showdowns had us on the edge of our seats. The Eagles squeaked by, covering as a 2.5-point favorite, and the Chiefs? Oh, they flexed hard, winning and covering the 9-point spread after being down 14 points in the 1Q. And guess what? The Ravens threw in a last-minute touchdown for good measure, not just winning but covering the 3 point spread in the last seconds of the game. Damn Vegas was at the end of some bad beats!

• Thanksgiving Plot Twist and Big Bet Thrills:

  • Despite the Detroit Lions failing for the public, public bettors found solace in heroes like the Dallas Cowboys, turning losses into wins.

  • And let's talk high-stakes drama with bets like $530,000 on 49ers -7 and a whopping $544,000 on Ole Miss -10. It's not just betting; it's a holiday weekend rollercoaster!

TLT SPORTS BETTING SCHOOL
TOPIC 24 - “CLOSING LINE VALUE”

Definition of Closing Line Value (CLV):

• Explanation: CLV measures the difference between the odds at the time a bet is placed and the odds at the moment the betting market closes.

• Positive CLV suggests that the bettor got better odds than the closing line, indicating a potentially well-timed bet.

Why CLV Matters?:

• CLV is a key metric for evaluating the efficiency of your betting decisions. If your bets consistently show positive CLV, it indicates that you are consistently beating the market and getting better odds than the majority of bettors. This can be a sign of astute decision-making.

How to Calculate CLV:

• Application: Calculate CLV by comparing the odds you secured when placing a bet with the closing odds.

  • For example, if you bet on a team at +150, but the closing line odds were +120, your CLV would be +30. This indicates a positive value, suggesting you beat the closing line.

Interpreting CLV Trends:

• Application: Track CLV over a series of bets to identify trends. If your CLV is consistently positive, it suggests your betting decisions are well-timed and that you have a knack for identifying value in the betting market.

  • If it's consistently negative, it may signal room for improvement in your betting strategy.

Am I Guaranteed to Win?:

• The Simple Answer is NO

• Closing Line Value (CLV) does not guarantee winning bets. Several factors contribute to this uncertainty, including

  • Unpredictable sports outcomes,

  • The influence of external factors (e.g., injuries, weather),

  • Incomplete information at the time of bet placement (you might be ahead of a influential player being called out on your team),

  • the efficiency of betting markets, and

  • the inherent variance in sports betting.

• While positive CLV is indicative of sound betting decisions and potential long-term profitability, individual outcomes remain subject to the inherent uncertainties of sports events