The Lock Talk - Newsletter #23

TOPICS OF THE DAY
HEDGE FUND INVASION IN THE NFL?

• Billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin (guy on the left) is in discussions to acquire a stake in the NFL's Miami Dolphins, the team's home field (Hard Rock Stadium), and the F1 Miami Grand Prix.

  • Griffin is negotiating with Stephen Ross, the current owner of these assets, who is looking to raise cash for investment in other sports-related ventures.

WHO ARE THESE GUYS?!

• Stephen Ross (guy on the right), the 83-year-old founder of Related Cos., also owns stakes in other sports entities, including the Miami Open tennis tournament, Equinox, and SoulCycle chains. Talks between Griffin and Ross were first reported by Fox Sports 640 in Miami.

• Kenneth Cordele Griffin is an American hedge fund manager, entrepreneur, and investor. As the founder and majority owner of Citadel LLC, a multinational hedge fund, as well as Citadel Securities, one of the largest market makers in the U.S., Griffin holds a prominent position in the financial industry. With an estimated net worth of $35 billion as of April 2023, he ranks as the 38th-richest person globally.

SPORTS BETTING SCHOOL
FADING THE PUBLIC

1. Monitor Public Betting Percentages:

   • Suppose in a basketball game between Team X and Team Y, 80% of the bets are on Team X, the heavily favored team. This high percentage indicates strong public support for Team X, especially if the money % isn’t in-line with the bet %. There are teams throughout a season who are “public” teams… think Yankees, Dodgers, Chiefs, Warriors as an example.

2. Understand the Line Movement:

   • Initially, the odds for Team X winning are set at -150, implying a 60% chance of winning.Even with the increased public support, the odds stay stuck at -150. This line movement signals that the sportsbook is taking a stance against the public.

3. Look for Contrarian Value:

   • Given the line movement and your analysis, you believe there's contrarian value in betting on Team Y. The odds on Team Y winning are +110, reflecting a 47.6% chance. However, your analysis suggests Team Y has a 55% chance of winning. This ~8% value is the basis for fading the public.

4. Exercise Proper Bankroll Management:

   • Let's say your standard bet size is $100. You decide to place a bet of $100 on Team Y at +110. If Team Y wins, you would profit $110 (your original $100 stake plus $110 in winnings). If Team Y loses, you lose your $100 stake. This represents a calculated risk within your established bankroll management plan.

Remember, these numbers are for illustrative purposes, and actual percentages, odds, and bet sizes will vary based on real-world scenarios. Successful execution of the "Fading the Public" strategy requires ongoing analysis, adaptability, and a disciplined approach to bankroll management.